管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 47-58.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

资本投资下降的形成原因研究：“四万亿”经济刺激政策长期影响的视角

连立帅1, 陈超2   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学经济与管理学部, 上海 200241;
    2. 复旦大学管理学院, 上海 200433
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-08 出版日期:2021-04-28 发布日期:2021-05-06
  • 作者简介:连立帅，华东师范大学经济与管理学部副教授，博士；陈超，复旦大学管理学院教授，博士生导师，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目（18YJC790093）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（71472048）。

The Mechanism of the Recent Decreasing of Capital Investment: The Long-term Effect of the RMB 4 Trillion Economic Stimulus Packages

Lian Lishuai1, Chen Chao2   

  1. 1. Faculty of Economics and Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241;
    2. School of Management, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433
  • Received:2018-04-08 Online:2021-04-28 Published:2021-05-06

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摘要： 基于2008年金融危机后中国政府推出的“四万亿”经济刺激政策长期影响的视角，本文利用微观企业数据考察了近期中国经济下行压力期间资本投资下降的形成原因。研究发现，受“四万亿”经济刺激政策影响越大的企业，在经济下行压力期间的资本投资越低，这一效应在民营企业中更为显著；宽松的货币政策对“四万亿”经济刺激政策与经济下行压力期间资本投资的关系无显著影响；“四万亿”经济刺激政策与经济下行压力期间资本投资的关系在低市场化程度地区更强。进一步分析发现，“四万亿”经济刺激政策导致企业的风险承担水平更低、投资机会更少、融资约束程度更高，从而致使企业在经济下行压力期间的资本投资水平更低。本文发现“四万亿”经济刺激政策的长期影响可能是导致经济下行压力期间企业资本投资下降的原因。

关键词: “四万亿”经济刺激政策, 资本投资, 货币政策, 市场化程度

Abstract: This study examines the mechanism of the decreasing of the capital investment in recent pressure of economic downturn (hereafter downturn period) from the perspective of the long-term impact of the RMB 4 trillion economic stimulus packages (hereafter four trillion packages). We find that firms affected more by four trillion packages invest less in the downturn period, and this effect is stronger for non-stated owned enterprises (NSOEs) than for SOEs. We also find that monetary policy has little impact on the relation between the impact of the four trillion packages on firm investment in downturn period, and the effect of four trillion packages and firm investment in downturn period is stronger for firms from lower marketization areas than those from higher marketization areas. Our further analyses show that the channels through which the four trillion packages affects firm investment in downturn period are risk preference and investment opportunity. Our findings suggest that the long-term impact of four trillion packages is the possible reason of the decreasing of recent capital investment.

Key words: RMB 4 trillion economic stimulus packages, investment, monetary policy, marketization