基于TEI@I方法论的系统管理预测技术研究综述及展望

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着世界经济、产业格局的变化，市场经济的不确定性和风险性日益提高，具有预警作用的预测技术成为众多学者的研究热点。但随着大数据时代的到来，复杂系统中的行为变得难以控制和预测。本文通过文本挖掘及文献计量的方法，从系统管理方法论的角度对预测技术的发展及应用进行了梳理和评述。首先，在对主要预测技术现有文献广泛调查的前提下，总结与评价了系统管理预测方法的发展。同时，对系统管理中TEI@I方法论及其衍生预测方法的原理与应用做出综述。其次，利用文献计量方法分析了国内外近20年相关文献的趋势以及热点预测技术。最后，总结全文并对系统管理预测技术在未来大数据背景下的发展提出展望。

关键词: 系统管理方法论, 预测技术, TEI@I方法论, 文献计量, 大数据

Abstract: With the changes in the world economy and industrial structure, the uncertainty and risk of the market economy are increasing. The predictive technology with early warning has become a research hot spot of many scholars. But with the advent of the big data, the behavior in complex systems becomes difficult to control and predict. In this paper, we review the development and application of prediction technology from the perspective of system management methodology with the help of text mining and bibliometric. Firstly, the development of system management forecasting methods is systematically summarized and evaluated based on the extensive investigation of the main forecasting technical literature. Besides, the principle and application of TEI@I methodology and its derived prediction methods in system management are summarized. Secondly, the trend of relevant literature in recent 20 years and the popular forecasting technologies are analyzed by bibliometric method. Finally, we summarize the whole paper and forecast the development of system management prediction technology under the background of big data in the future.

Key words: system management methodology, prediction technology, TEI@I methodology, bibliometric, big data

柴建, 寇红红. 基于TEI@I方法论的系统管理预测技术研究综述及展望[J]. 管理评论, 2020, 32(7): 280-292.

Chai Jian, Kou Honghong. Review and Prospect of System Management Prediction Technology Based on TEI@I Methodology[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(7): 280-292.

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