管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 3-15.

• 经济与金融管理 •    下一篇

隐匿行为下的地方政府自行发债最优监管契约

王治国1,2,3   

  1. 1. 北京大学光华管理学院, 北京 100871;
    2. 北京大学战略研究所, 北京 100871;
    3. 香港科技大学经济系, 香港 999077
  • 收稿日期:2017-07-12 发布日期:2020-07-10
  • 作者简介:王治国,北京大学光华管理学院讲师,博士后,博士,香港科技大学经济系访问学者。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目（71473190）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目（16YJCZH110）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目（2016M600867）；中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目（2017T100019）。

Optimal Regulatory Contract for the Bond Issuance by Chinese Local Governmentunder Hidden Action

Wang Zhiguo1,2,3   

  1. 1. Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871;
    2. Institute of Strategic Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871;
    3. Department of Economics, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong 999077
  • Received:2017-07-12 Published:2020-07-10

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摘要： 本文借鉴Hölmstrom（1999）隐匿行为下道德风险问题及Laffont和Tirole（1988）多阶段建模思想，结合中国地方政府隐匿行为和中央政府隐性担保情境，构建单期和两期的最优监管契约模型，给出了中央政府最优监管契约设计的一般框架，并分别通过算例对理论模型进行验证。理论推导和算例分析结果表明，单期情形下，通过将中央对地方的分配规则与地方政府的努力程度挂钩，中央能够为地方增加努力提供有效激励，进而有助于社会福利改善；考虑声誉效应情形下，地方政府会在两期下的第一期比单期更加努力。该研究为中央对地方政府发行债券的监管契约设计提供了理论依据。中央可以根据地方政府的实际情况，结合单期和两期下的结论设计监管策略。

关键词: 道德风险, 隐性担保, 最优监管契约, 声誉效应, 地方债

Abstract: Based on the moral hazard problem in H lmstrom's (1999) and the multi-stage modeling in Laffont and Tirole (1988), this paper constructs an optimal supervision contract that takes into account local governments' moral hazard and the central government's implicit debt guarantee under single-period and two-period cases. It gives a general framework of the central government optimal supervision contract design and then uses numerical examples to verify the theoretical results. The results show that the central government can provide effective incentives for local governments to increase their efforts by linking the central government's sharing rules with local governments' efforts under the single-period case, which contributes to the improvement of social welfare. Considering the reputation effect, local governments will work harder at the first period in the two-period context than that in the one-stage context. The study provides a theoretical basis for the central government to design the regulatory mechanism for the bond issuance by local governments. This paper also provides many implications for the central government to design its supervision strategies based on specific local governments' conditions.

Key words: moral hazard, implicit guarantee, optimal regulation contract, reputation effect, local government debt