管理评论

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 102-112.

• 技术与创新管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

核能技术研发方案选择的鲁棒决策方法研究

张李洁1,2, 池宏1,3, 祁明亮1,3, 杨磊4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100000;
    3. 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院, 北京 100049;
    4. 中国科学院近代物理研究所, 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-01 出版日期:2019-06-28 发布日期:2019-07-08
  • 通讯作者: 祁明亮(通讯作者),中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副研究员,中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院教授,硕士生导师,博士。
  • 作者简介:张李洁,中国科学院大学,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院硕士研究生;池宏,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院研究员,中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;杨磊,中国科学院近代物理研究所研究员,博士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    未来先进核能战略研究（Y600251G01）；核能战略与管理的科技决策方法发展态势研究（Y600791604）。

Research on Robust Decision Making Method of Nuclear Energy Technology R&D Scheme Selection

Zhang Lijie1,2, Chi Hong1,3, Qi Mingliang1,3, Yang Lei4   

  1. 1. Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100000;
    3. College of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    4. Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000
  • Received:2018-03-01 Online:2019-06-28 Published:2019-07-08

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摘要：

核能技术不仅研发周期长、技术挑战大，还受科研投入、其他清洁能源发展等多种外界因素影响，导致其战略选择十分困难。良好的核能技术方案，不仅需在技术上具有先进性、满足多样化用途，还应在时间节点内尽可能实现。本文针对核能技术研发的复杂性，考虑被选方案的实现可能性，以及它们之间的兼容性。针对外部环境变化，考虑研发方案在不同情景下技术发展目标值的鲁棒性，提出了以用途需求和兼容性强为约束的多目标0-1鲁棒优化模型决策方法，以降低战略选型方案的系统风险。在求指标权重时，通过在效用加性（UTA）反算权重模型基础上加入部分指标权重的关系约束，使权重更贴近未来情景需求。最后通过案例验证了该方法在未来技术选择中的适用性。

关键词: 核能技术研发方案, 技术兼容性, 实现可能性, 多目标0-1鲁棒优化模型, 技术选择

Abstract:

Nuclear technology is not only a long process of research and development, but also a technological challenge. It is also influenced by various external factors such as national strategy, economic status, scientific research investment and other clean energy development. These have led to the complexity of the choice of nuclear energy technology. In order to reduce the risk of R & D, a good nuclear energy technology should not only be advanced in technology, but also should be realized in the time node as much as possible. In addition, in order to ensure the feasibility of the strategy of nuclear energy development, the variety use of nuclear energy technology needs to be taken into consideration. In this paper, aiming at the complexity of nuclear technology research and development, we evaluate the possibility and compatibility of the selected schemes from four indicators:research foundation, key technology complexity, state specific support and industrial application smoothness. Considering the change of external environment, we consider the impact of different scenarios on the four indicators of technological development goals (sustainability, economy, security, prevention and diffusion) weight, and use Euclidean distance to represent the robustness of technological development goals in different scenarios. Based on the constraint of demand and compatibility, a multi-objective 0-1 robust optimization model is established. In order to get index weight, we add some relational weights of index weights on the basis of utility added (UTA) inverse weight model to make the weight closer to the future situational needs. This model considers the influence of the external environment and technology uncertainty in the process of technology selection, and adds the use demand constraints, to provide decision support for future nuclear technology strategy selection. Finally an example is given to illustrate the use of the process model.

Key words: research and development scheme of nuclear energy technology, technical compatibility, realization of possibility, multi-objective 0-1 robust optimization model, technology selection