管理评论

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 53-65.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

碳强度约束的模拟：宏观效应、减排效应和结构效应

董梅1,2, 徐璋勇1, 李存芳2   

  1. 1. 西北大学经济管理学院, 西安 710127;
    2. 江苏师范大学商学院, 徐州 221116
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-12 出版日期:2019-05-28 发布日期:2019-05-31
  • 通讯作者: 徐璋勇(通讯作者),西北大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
  • 作者简介:董梅,西北大学经济管理学院博士研究生,江苏师范大学商学院讲师;李存芳,江苏师范大学商学院教授,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金面上项目（71573110）；江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目（2016SJD790026）。

Simulation of Carbon Intensity Restriction: Macro-effect, Emission Reduction Effect and Structural Effect

Dong Mei1,2, Xu Zhangyong1, Li Cunfang2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127;
    2. Business School, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116
  • Received:2017-06-12 Online:2019-05-28 Published:2019-05-31

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摘要：

基于碳强度约束的行政型减排措施是中国应对气候变化的主要手段之一，分析碳强度约束对经济系统的影响，是碳减排机制设计的重要内容。本文通过动态CGE模型，模拟2012-2030年碳强度约束和非化石能源比重提高对中国宏、微观经济和碳减排的影响。研究表明：在保持经济适度增长的情况下，2020年和2030年，碳强度分别比基准情景下降15.176%和36.586%，但仍略低于碳强度目标值；碳强度约束引起综合国内销售价格大幅上涨，投资、出口和进口小幅上升，消费少量下降；该约束还导致煤炭、原油和成品油价格大幅上涨；大多数非能源部门的产出和出口受到抑制，国内需求和进口显著上升。总体而言，行政型减排措施能够有效降低碳强度，但不能完全实现碳减排目标，需要适时推出碳税、碳交易等举措，形成碳减排的长效机制。

关键词: 碳强度约束, 宏观效应, 减排效应, 结构效应, 动态CGE模型

Abstract:

Administrative emission reduction measures based on carbon intensity restriction are one of China's major means of coping with climate change. The analysis of the impact of carbon intensity restriction on the economy is a significant content of the carbon emission reduction mechanism design. This paper adopts the dynamic CGE model to simulate influences of carbon intensity restriction goals and the increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy over China's macro-economy, micro-economy and carbon emission reduction from 2012 to 2030. The study shows:while moderate economic growth is maintained, the carbon intensity falls by 15.176% and 36.586% respectively in 2020 and 2030 compared with the baseline scenario but it's still a bit lower than the target carbon intensity goal; besides, carbon intensity restriction leads to a dramatic rise in China's domestic sales prices, a small increase in investment, export and import, and a slight drop in consumption; the restriction gives rise to a sharp increase in coal, crude oil and refined oil products; the output and export of the majority of non-energy departments are restrained, and domestic demand and import witness an obvious rise. Generally speaking, administrative emission reduction measures can effectively weaken the carbon intensity but cannot completely reach the carbon emission reduction goals. Therefore, it's feasible to form a long-term mechanism by implementing carbon tax and carbon transaction.

Key words: carbon intensity restriction, macro-effect, emission reduction effect, structural effect, dynamic CGE model