中国环境治理困境的挑战与策略分析——基于环境投资的内生机制

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 39-47.

中国环境治理困境的挑战与策略分析——基于环境投资的内生机制

余红辉^1,2

1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
2. 中国节能环保集团有限公司, 北京 100082

收稿日期:2017-09-07 出版日期:2019-01-28 发布日期:2019-01-22
通讯作者: 余红辉(通讯作者),中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,中国节能环保集团有限公司董事、总经理、党委副书记,教授级高级工程师
基金资助:
国家发改委全球环境基金（GEF）（2014GJX14）；中国气候变化技术需求评估项目。

The Challenges and Strategic Analysis of Environmental Governance in China——Based on Endogenous Mechanism of Environmental Investment

Yu Honghui^1,2

1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
2. China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group(CECEP), Beijing 100082

Received:2017-09-07 Online:2019-01-28 Published:2019-01-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为世界最大的发展中国家，同时也是污染物排放最多的经济体之一，我国当前面临发展经济的迫切需求和治理环境的严峻挑战。本文通过建立我国的经济-能源-环境综合评估模型，在满足社会福利最大化的目标约束下，研究我国最优的环保投资路径及其对环境污染物的最优控制效果。研究结果显示：首先，随着我国经济的发展，必然会产生越来越多的污染物排放，然而当经济发展到一定程度时，这些排放物的增长速率会相对减缓；其次，在环境约束目标下，我国最优环保投资占GDP水平的比例路径呈现逐渐上升的趋势；最后，中国的经济增长虽然会造成二氧化硫、氮氧化物和烟（粉）尘等污染物的大量排放，但是随着环保投资和气候投资的增加，这些污染物排放量可以得到有效的控制。此外，基于以上结论，本文给出三点具有参考价值的政策建议。

关键词: 环保投资, 环保产业, 环境污染物, 减排策略, 综合评估模型

Abstract:

As one of the largest developing countries in the world and one of the largest polluters in the world, China is facing urgently needed economic development and challenging environmental governance. Based on the establishment of China's Economy-Energy-Environment Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), this paper studies the optimal pathway and controlling effect on environmental pollutants of environmental investment in China under the objective of the maximization of social welfare. The results show that:firstly, the growth rate of these environmental pollutant emissions will be relatively slow when the economy is developed to some extent although the emissions of environmental pollutants increase with the economic development of China at the early stage; secondly, under the environmental constraints target in China, the investment in optimal environmental protection is accounting for an increasing percentage of GDP; and finally, the emissions of the sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and smoke dust can be effectively controlled with the increase of investment in environmental protection and climate actions. Besides, based on these conclusions, this paper offers three policy recommendations with reference value.

Key words: environmental investment, environmental protection industry, environmental pollutants, emission reduction strategy, Integrated Assessment Model

余红辉. 中国环境治理困境的挑战与策略分析——基于环境投资的内生机制[J]. , 2019, 31(1): 39-47.

Yu Honghui. The Challenges and Strategic Analysis of Environmental Governance in China——Based on Endogenous Mechanism of Environmental Investment[J]. , 2019, 31(1): 39-47.

参考文献

[1] 盛丽颖. 中国碳减排财政政策研究[D]. 辽宁大学博士学位论文, 2011
[2] 田华,刘晨阳. 中国推进实施应对气候变化财政政策的战略意义与路径选择[J]. 财政研究, 2010,(7):29-32
[3] 刘晨阳. 中国实施应对气候变化的财政政策内外部动因及效果初探[J]. 现代财经:天津财经学院学报, 2011,(10):32-36
[4] 国务院环境保护委员会,国务院办公厅. 关于积极发展环境保护产业的若干意见[N]. 中华人民共和国国务院公报, 1990,(26):962-972
[5] 杜雯翠. 环保投资、环境技术与环保产业发展——来自环保类上市公司的经验证据[J]. 北京理工大学学报, 2013,(15):47-53
[6] 余伟,陈强,陈华. 不同环境政策工具对技术创新的影响分析——基于2004-2011年我国省级面板数据的实证研究[J]. 管理评论, 2016,28(1):53-61
[7] 金晓彤,赵太阳,李杨. 营销信息如何影响环保型产品的购买意愿——基于他人在场的调节效应分析[J]. 管理评论, 2017,29(1):166-174
[8] 崔连标,段宏波,许金华. 交易费用对我国碳市场成本有效性的影响——基于国内碳交易试点间的模拟分析[J]. 管理评论, 2017,29(6):23-31
[9] Nordhaus W. D. Managing the Global Commons:The Economics of Climate Change[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, 1994
[10] Messner S., Strubegger M. User's Guide for MESSAGE Ⅲ[R]. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1995
[11] Messner S. Endogenized Technological Learning in an Energy Systems Model[J]. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1997,7(3):291-313
[12] Nordhaus W. D. Modeling Induced Innovation in Climate-change Policy[J]. Technological Change and the Environment, 2002,9:259-290
[13] Nordhaus W. D., Yang Z. A Regional Dynamic General-equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-change Strategies[J]. The American Economic Review, 1996,86(4):741-765
[14] Van der Zwaan B., Gerlagh R., Schrattenholzer L. Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Change Modelling[J]. Energy Economics, 2002,24(1):1-19
[15] Gerlagh R., Van der Zwaan B. Gross World Product and Consumption in a Global Warming Model with Endogenous Technological Change[J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 2003,25(1):35-57
[16] Gerlagh R., Van der Zwaan B., Hofkes M. W., et al., Impacts of CO2-taxes in an Economy with Niche Markets and Learning-by-doing[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2004,28(3):367-394
[17] Gerlagh R., Van der Zwaan B. Options and Instruments for a Deep Cut in CO₂ Emissions:Carbon Dioxide Capture or Renewables, Taxes or Subsidies?[J]. The Energy Journal, 2006,27(3):25-48
[18] Van der Zwaan B., Gerlagh R. Economics of Geological CO2 Storage and Leakage[J]. Climatic Change, 2009,93(3):285-309
[19] Duan H. B., Zhu L., Fan Y. Optimal Carbon Taxes in Carbon-constrained China:A Logistic-induced Energy Economic Hybrid Model[J]. Energy, 2014,69(5):345-356
[20] Duan H. B., Fan Y., Zhu L. What's the Most Cost-effective Policy of CO₂ Targeted Reduction:An Application of Aggregated Economic Technological Model with CCS?[J]. Applied Energy, 2013,112(C):866-875
[21] Barreto L., Kypreos S. Endogenizing R&D and Market Experience in the "Bottom-up" Energy-systems ERIS Model[J]. Technovation, 2004,24(8):615-629
[22] Peng P., Zhu L., Fan Y. Performance Evaluation of Climate Policies in China:A Study Based on an Integrated Assessment Model[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017,164:1068-1080
[23] Manne A., Mendelsohn R., Richels R. MERGE:A Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of GHG Reduction Policies[J]. Energy Policy, 1995,23(1):17-34
[24] Amir R., Germain M., Steenberghe V. V. On the Impact of Innovation on the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve[J]. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 2010,10(6):985-1010
[25] 陈真玲,王文举. 环境税制下政府与污染企业演化博弈分析[J]. 管理评论, 2017,29(5):226-236
[26] 国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴2011[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2012a
[27] BP. Statistical Review of World Energy[EB/OL]. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
[28] 国家统计局. 中国能源统计年鉴2011[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2012b
[29] 国家电力监管委员会. 电力监管年度报告[R]. 国家电力监管委员会, 2012
[30] 国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴2015[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2016